Have Questions? We Have Answers

What is pandemic influenza?

Pandemic influenza, or flu, is a global outbreak of disease that occurs when a new influenza A virus appears in humans, causes serious illness and then spreads easily from person to person.

What is the difference between seasonal flu and pandemic flu?

Seasonal flu is a viral infection of the lungs that appears each year between November and March.

About 8,000 Canadians die each year from seasonal flu. Health Canada estimates that a pandemic flu could claim 11,000 - 58,000 lives.

When will the next flu pandemic strike?

Influenza pandemics are recurring events but they are unpredictable. It has been 36 years since the last influenza pandemic and, although it is impossible to predict with any certainty when the next one will hit, experts agree that we are overdue for one.

Experts agree: it is not a question of if, but when the next flu pandemic will strike.  Despite all preparedness efforts, Canada will not be spared from a flu pandemic.

How long could a flu pandemic last?

Each wave of pandemic influenza could last up to eight weeks and reoccur, affecting the country in some capacity for up to a year or more, and infecting up to one-third of the population.

What will be the impact of a flu pandemic?

Depending on the severity of the pandemic, Health Canada estimates that between 11,000 and 58,000 deaths may occur in Canada as a result of a new influenza virus. These numbers are based on the assumption that the virus infects between 15 and 35 per cent of the population.

As well, the model used to calculate these numbers does not factor in the potential impact of a vaccine or antiviral drugs, which would reduce illness and deaths. Clearly, the number of deaths, as in any influenza season, really depends on how the virus behaves, how it spreads and what we can do to limit these factors.

A flu pandemic could cost the Canadian economy billions of dollars in lost productivity and medical expenses.  Public meetings are likely to be cancelled by the authorities or because of low attendance.  Canada’s trade status may be compromised.  Impacts on critical infrastructure impacts are likely to be moderate to serious.  The tourism industry would be badly affected.

What will be the impact of a flu pandemic on business?

All businesses, hospitals and government agencies will feel the effects of a pandemic.  Primary impact will be on staffing levels as 15 to 35 percent of the workforce may be ill at any one time.  Businesses should plan for up to 50% staff absences for periods of about two weeks at the height of a severe pandemic wave, and lower levels of staff absence for a few weeks either side of the peak. Overall a pandemic wave may last about eight weeks.

A pandemic may have other impacts on businesses, for example:

• The provision of essential services like information, telecommunications, and financial services, energy supply, and logistics may be disrupted;
• Customer orders may be cancelled or may not be able to be filled;
• Supplies of materials needed for ongoing business activity may be disrupted.  Problems can be expected if goods are imported by air or land over the Canada-U.S. border;
• The availability of services from sub-contractors may be affected (this may affect maintenance of key equipment, and is an area that merits close planning attention); and,
• Demand for business services may be affected – demand for some services may increase (internet access is a possible example); while demand for others may fall (e.g. certain types of travel activity).

Unlike other disasters, a flu pandemic will touch everyone in every part of the country, and every part of the world. Moving operations to another location is not likely to be a viable option.  During a pandemic, it will not be business as usual.

How can business prepare for pandemic influenza?

A Business Continuity Plan (BCP) should be an essential element of any business’ strategy or operating procedures.  In recent years, the impacts that Y2K, 9/11, SARS and the power outage in Ontario, the ice storm in central Canada and other natural disasters have had on Canadian businesses only reinforces the need for continuity plans.  Current concern about the risk of an avian flu pandemic further emphasizes the point that continuity planning must take the specific case of highly infectious diseases into account. 

Creating and maintaining a BCP helps ensure that an institution has the resources and information needed to deal with a pandemic.  It enables critical services or products to be continually delivered to clients. Instead of focusing on resuming a business after critical operations have ceased, or recovering after a pandemic occurs, a Business Continuity Plan endeavors to ensure that critical operations continue to be available. A Business Continuity Plan is a tool that allows institutions to not only mitigate risk, but also continuously deliver products and services despite disruption. 

Why has CME prepared this guide for business?

Canada’s business community is at risk.  While many larger companies and essential services have developed contingency plans, most smaller and mid-sized firms have not.  This lack of preparedness not only threatens the viability of a large sector of the Canadian economy, but, as in the case of manufacturing, also jeopardizes the delivery of critical goods that depends on complex supply chain systems.

As with any risk that threatens the viability of business operations, continuity planning is critical.  In addition to the threat to human health, the economic impacts of a pandemic, including absenteeism in the workplace or the downstream effects stemming from supply-chain and travel disruption, will be significant and widespread.

All businesses should take immediate steps to develop continuity plans that protect employees, minimize disruptions, and contain negative impacts on customers, the economy, and local communities. 

This guide is designed to help businesses minimize the risk that an influenza pandemic poses to the health and safety of employees, the continuity of business operations, and their bottom line.  It is intended to provide all businesses in Canada with the basic information they require in preparing a continuity plan to mitigate the potential effects of a pandemic.